Marcos govt outsmarted by China into losing Escoda

THE Marcos government was outsmarted by the China Coast Guard to lose Escoda Shoal, which the Chinese call Xianbin Jiao. The Chinese also thwarted the US plan to turn Philippine vessels into cannon fodder in its campaign to demonize the Chinese as the violent bullies in Asia.

Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. in just two months has lost two of the maritime areas that the Philippines has been claiming as part of its exclusive economic zone, the Ayungin and Escoda Shoals. (China on the other hand claims it as part of Nansha Qundao, which it says it claimed as its sovereign territory for two millennia.

This loss is for “forever,” as in the case of Vietnam’s grabbing of Southwest Cay in 1975 by tricking our Marines into leaving their watch for a party in nearby island, and of the Benigno Aquino 3rd abandoning Scarborough Shoal in 2012, fooled by the Americans.

We have been betrayed by our political leadership. Marcos was largely either indifferent or oblivious to the unfolding events that led to the loss of Escoda Shoal. On the other hand, the Marcos-controlled Congress was obsessed over suspected POGO magnate Alice Guo spending four months in its investigation of her,   resuscitating long-debunked claims of EJKs during the Duterte administration, and hunting down the religious leader Pastor Quiboloy.

Two days before the BRP Teresa Magbanua left the shoal, according to its captain, because it was running out of fuel and water, with several of sailors suffering from dehydration, Marcos was busy over the planning of and implementation of his birthday celebrations on September 11, which probably occupied his mind, as it was his favorite band Duran Duran that played at his party.

Security

His security officials should be fired for not alerting Marcos that there was an emerging national security situation, that the president and the National Security Council should meet, perhaps even with leaders of Congress, to come up with a way to prevent the loss of Escoda Shoal. If his security officials did alert him but he ignored the alert, then it is Marcos who should be fired.

Sources claim that he told his aides to inform the Philippine Coast Guard to handle situation themselves.

Now, Marcos’ officials are in deep, psychotic denial that the Philippines has lost Escoda, and have been making statements which presume that Filipinos are so stupid they would believe them. PCG commandant Admiral Ronnie Gil Galvan declared: “We did not withdraw from Escoda Shoal, we repositioned the vessel.” Repositioned from Escoda to its homeport in Palawan, 170 kilometers away?

The usually ridiculous PCG spokesman Jay Tarriela similarly buried his head deep in the sand, quite amazingly saying that “as far as re PCG is concerned, we have not lost anything.”  He justified this delusion by claiming Escoda Shoal is so huge that it is “impossible for the Chinese government to block our intent to patrol it.”

Obviously Tarriela is ignorant of the fact that the CCG operates the world’s largest coast guard fleet with over 1,200 vessels, compared to the Philippines’ 100 ships. The Chinese navy is also the biggest with around 350 ships, compared to the Philippine Navy’s 150. Both the CCG and the Chinese Navy also have advanced radar equipment and reconnaissance planes that allow them to detect a Philippine vessel entering Escoda Shoal, and mobilize their fastest vessels to intercept it. China’s Type 022 Houbei-class vessels (together with the Russian Bora-class hovercraft) are the fastest military vessels currently in service, capable of speeds of around 50 knots, faster than the 40-knot speed of the Americans’ Independence-class vessels.

Abandoned

National Maritime Council spokesman Alexander Lopez claimed the PCG had not totally abandoned Escoda: “When we talk about presence (in claimed area), it’s a strategic presence, not just a physical one,” apparently referring to air surveillance of the shoal. Do we want simply a ghost-like presence, instad of a physical indication of our claim of sovereign rights at Escoda.

The loss of Escoda Shoal was the blowback to the plan by Marcos military officials to strengthen the Philippines’ claim of having  sovereign rights over Escoda, which is within its EEZ, by mimicking what happened at Ayungin Shoal. The Navy’s grounding of the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin since 1999 fooled the world that the Philippines still had control of it, even if it had agreed with the Chinese that it would not supply it with materials that would keep it intact there, and that it would eventually tow it out of Ayungin.

Starting last March though, the Philippines attempted to bring in repair supplies, which however were intercepted by the Chinese by physically blocking these vessels. An “agreement” was reached in July which basically reverted to the original pact since 1999: The Philippines will supply the ship only with food and water and not repair materials; it will inform China about such resupply operations, which it will undertake only once a month.

For Escoda, Marcos’ plan was to have the BRP Teresa Magbanua, one of its two largest and newest vessels, to sail into Escoda and patrol it for months, the equivalent of the Sierra Madre in Ayungin. Unlike the Sierra Madre, however, it would not be grounded, and Marcos’ military thought that the Chinese would also allow it to be resupplied regularly with food and fuel.

China allowed the Mabanua to remain in Ayungin since April, or for five months to August, without doing anything. It was a trap.

When its supplies dwindled to dangerous levels – water had to be rationed – the Chinese blocked Philippine vessels from approaching it to provide food and water. In September 2, CCG ships tried to push the Magbanua away from the shoal. That however didn’t work, resulting only in a ramming incident that the Philippines – and the US – used as fodder for their propaganda that China is bullying the Philippines.

Underlying

Underlying Marcos’ plan was his belief that the US would come to the PCG’s aid when China rams its vessels, which can be interpreted as an “attack” that would trigger the two countries’ Mutual Defense Treaty. Indeed, US State Secretary Anthony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin were in Manila July 30, during which they reiterated that the MDT was “iron-clad”. “We have your back,” Blinken told Marcos.

However, it was a repeat of the Scarborough case, when the US fooled our Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario into ordering our vessels out of the shoal, by telling him that the Chinese had agreed on a  simultaneous withdrawal. There was no agreement.

In the case of Escoda, nowhere in the South China Sea (SCS) were US vessels present as the crisis unfolded, although it gained much propaganda material as the episode  was distorted to portray China as bullying the Philippines in the SCS.

On September 11, upon the Philippines’ request, Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) officials met with their counterparts in Beijing to “ease tensions in Escoda.” Officially nothing much came out of the meeting except for each party reaffirming their nations’ unchanged stand over Escoda.

However, a DFA source claimed that after the meeting – so no records could be kept – a ranking Chinese diplomat told DFA undersecretary Theresa Lazaro that the Chinese leadership had decided that its (the Philippines’) military or coast guard will be tugged away from the shoal.

This information was relayed to the PCG leadership, although it is not known whether Marcos was told of it.  Two days later on September 14, the Magbanua left the shoal on its own, with several of its sailors sick, mainly from dehydration.

“Definitely, another coast guard vessel will be — actually, as we speak — is on its way. As to what kind of vessel, I cannot divulge that information,” National Maritime Council spokesman Lopez said yesterday.

I don’t think this guy will be on his job for long. He and maybe our entire military leadership are ignorant of the rules of the game in territorial disputes.

The United Nations on its founding declared that the acquisition by force of arms by a nation of another territory violates its charter. Several countries however have managed to acquire territory by non-violent means, trickery in the case of Vietnam grabbing Sandy Cay in 1975, and more recently by the Chinese, helped by the US, acquiring control of Scarborough Shoal in 2012.

Once a nation loses a piece of territory, it can’t recover it except by force, which however is banned by the UN. An attempt by the Philippines to recover Sandy Cay, Scarborough Shoal and Escoda can only be done by force, with the Chinese however simply blocking our vessels, without firing a shot.

Is Marcos really in charge of our disputes with China in the SCS, or has he merely allowed the PCG and our military, ignorant of geopolitics, to call the shots, with his “Bahala na kayo” leadership style.

Where is the person who is officially in charge of our disputes with other countries that threaten to be violent – Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro? Where is he anyway?

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Marcos govt outsmarted by China into losing Escoda
Source: Breaking News PH