SC ruling paves the way for a Sara presidency in 2028

THE unanimous Supreme Court decision declaring the impeachment complaint by the House or Representatives — directed by President Marcos and Speaker Martín Romualdez — unconstitutional has demolished the main obstacle to Vice President Sara Duterte’s bid for the presidency in the 2028 elections.

While Speaker Martin Romualdez still retained his speakership, the pollical landscape has drastically changed. With politicians being what they are — political opportunists — there will be a drift towards Sara’s political camp.

Politically, Marcos and Romualdez are finished, especially with their proven incompetence in running the government, as demonstrated by their total incapacity to mitigate flooding — even in the metropolis — despite the 5,500 flood projects President Marcos boasted about in his 2024 State of the Nation Address. Romualdez further bungled his “Impeach Sara” operation, allowing four impeachment complaints to be filed against Sara — a clear violation of the one-impeachment-per-year rule of the Constitution.

Indeed, the sole purpose of that impeachment complaint was to prevent Sara from holding any public office, which most people do not know is the main penalty for being found guilty in an impeachment trial. Unscrupulous pollsters have taken advantage of this ignorance by framing their survey questions as Sara’s chance to prove herself innocent.

Respondent

If a respondent is not aware — as most Filipinos aren’t — that the accusations are so preposterous (“she is silent on China’s aggression”) or that the 215 congressmen who transmitted the complaints to the Senate were bribed (most of whom hadn’t even read these), and that a guilty verdict would ban her from ever becoming the nation’s leader, then he would approve of the impeachment trial. I was told most respondents think Sara is innocent of the impeachment charges, which actually prompted them to answer that she should agree to the trial.

Sara is incontrovertibly the shoo-in for the highest post of the land in 2028. No other political figure even comes close to the massive political support for her. From a recent poll I’ve seen, Sara’s lead over the nearest competitor has even widened by about 15 points. Her closest competitor? Sen. Raffy Tulfo.

However, Tulfo isn’t a real threat, and his emergence as Sara’s nearest rival is illusory, based entirely on a kind of mass popularity that is ephemeral. The “Isumbong Mo Kay Tulfo” program has become passé, and Filipinos want a leader who can challenge the elites — something the broadcaster really hasn’t done, as he has mainly targeted petty bureaucrats and lower-ranking police officers. There is also talk that Tulfo has skeletons in his closet that could be exposed in an intense political contest. Tulfo lacks a political organization and network, relying only on his popularity among viewers of his program.

Tulfo isn’t naive, and I think his strategy is to convince Sara to make him her running mate for vice president. With that post, he could be a shoo-in for 2034, although by then he would be 71. Competing with Tulfo as Sara’s potential running mate is Isko Moreno, the current second-term Manila mayor.

It’s obvious that Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Risa Hontiveros are liked only by the elite: They speak the elite’s language, they look like the elite. Speaker Martin Romualdez wealth isn’t enough to buy a national election, even if the convinces the Marcos clan to mobilize their billions of ill-gotten.

Charisma

In contrast, only Sara possesses that hard-to-define quality that brings massive support to certain leaders around the world, for good or ill: charisma. She inherits the charisma of her father, who projected bravery and patriotism even as he risked jail, and who was strongly identified with the masses.

Several cases around the world have shown this charisma to be “transferable,” as in the case of Indian leader Nehru’s daughter, Indira Gandhi; Pakistan’s Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s daughter, Benazir Bhutto; and Myanmar’s Aung San’s daughter, Aung San Suu Kyi. Despite being accused of massive corruption, which justified the coup that removed him from office, Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister Yingluck and daughter Paetongtarn both became prime ministers of Thailand.

Sara, moreover, has portrayed herself as sharing her father’s attribute that helped make him charismatic: boldness in confronting the political allies of Speaker Romualdez at House of Representatives hearings, and identification with the masses through her modest lifestyle — in sharp contrast to the presidential couple’s jet-setting and partying with the elite abroad. Most importantly, she her story is that of the princess (or prince) of legends, who fights powerful forces to defend her father.

There is only one force that could stop Sara: the US Deep State, which fears that she will adopt her father’s policy of distancing the country from the US, and reestablishing friendly relations with China.

That faction of the US — which rules the country — considers China as a strategic enemy whose rise to superpower status challenging the American empire must be stopped. It sees the Philippines as a crucial location to establish military bases — as it already has through he so-called Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement sites — where its missiles could be installed, close to the Chinese-occupied military installations in the Spratlys and to Taiwan.

However, what could change this US policy is President Trump’s statements in his recent meeting with Marcos: ““I don’t mind if he (Marcos) deals with China, because we’re getting along with China very well. We have a good relationship.” Trump repeated his advice several minutes later: “You can deal with China; you should deal with China.”

Change

That could signal a major change in US policy toward China and the Philippines. Filipinos would welcome that: former president Aquino III’s and President Marcos Jr.’s hostile policy toward China — prodded by the US — has been one of the country’s most disastrous foreign policy mistakes.

However, Trump’s term ends next year, and we cannot predict whether his successor will maintain or change the his view on China.

My fear is that the US has created a powerful media apparatus in this country, that would allow it to do what it can do to stop Sara. Just take a look at how the three major broadsheets have been so pro-American. For instance our ambassador to the US, and shamelessly pro-American Babe Romualdez, Philippine Star columnist and stockholder, while the online news outfit Rappler grew because of financial support from a US government-fund organization.

Worse is that the US holds Marcos by the balls, because there is a standing contempt decision by a US court against his family, for its total defiance of that court’s order for it to pay $2 billion to human rights victims during his father’s dictatorship.

Any time Marcos isn’t cooperating with the US, it would mobilize its resources and international network to paint the former strongman’s son as kleptocratic as the father, and as in several recent cases — that of former Nigerian dictator Sani Abacha and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Madur effect a confiscation of his clan’s assets here and abroad.

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SC ruling paves the way for a Sara presidency in 2028
Source: Breaking News PH