Southeast Asian nations tilting toward China
PRESIDENT Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has strengthened our vassalage to the United States, implying that it would even join the superpower in defending Taiwan against China when it claims it violently as part of its territory.
Marcos is either the smartest leader among Southeast Asian nations heads of state, or the most stupid.
A well-researched article in the July 1 issue of the prestigious Foreign Affairs magazine, written by Yuen Foong Khong and Joseph Chinyong Liow — both Singaporean professors — reported that most of Southeast Asia has pivoted toward China, or least significantly have a balanced stance toward it and the US.
Titled “Southeast Asia is starting to choose,” the article read:
“By analyzing the positions of 10 Southeast Asian countries on a welter of issues relating to China and the United States, one thing becomes evident: over the past 30 years, many of these countries have gradually but discernibly shifted away from the United States and toward China. Some shifts are more drastic and significant than others. A few countries have indeed managed to ‘hedge,’ to straddle the rift between two superpowers.
“The overall direction of travel, however, is clear. Southeast Asian countries may insist that they are staying above the fray, but their policies reveal otherwise. The region is drifting toward China, a fact that bodes ill for American ambitions in Asia.”
Data
The authors explained that their conclusion is based on empirical data:
“To understand the alignments of Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, we examined five domains of interaction between these states, and China and the United States: ‘political-diplomatic’ and ‘military-security’ engagement, economic ties, cultural-political affinity (or soft power) and signaling (the public messaging of states).
“We tracked four indicators in each domain, totaling 20 measures of alignment overall. For example, on the political-diplomatic front, we assembled data on UN voting alignment, the strength of bilateral cooperation, the number of high-level official visits and membership in multilateral groupings. On the economic front, we examined imports, exports, business associations and levels of foreign debt. Combining these measures allows us to arrive at a single score for each country.
“A score of zero indicates full alignment with China; a score of 100 indicates full alignment with the United States. By this metric, we consider the countries that fall within the range of 45 to 55 to be successful hedgers straddling the divide between the two superpowers.
“The index, which we have called ‘The Anatomy of Choice Alignment Index,’ offers two major findings. First, when Southeast Asian countries say they don’t want to choose between China and the United States, it doesn’t mean that all of them are on the fence.
“Averaging out their alignment positions over the past 30 years, we found that four countries — Indonesia (49), Malaysia (47), Singapore (48) and Thailand (45) — can be thought of as successful hedgers, doing their best to straddle the divide. Other Asean countries are more closely aligned with a superpower. The Philippines (60) is clearly aligned with the United States, whereas Myanmar (24), Laos (29), Cambodia (38), Vietnam (43) and Brunei (44) are all aligned with China.
Timespans
“Second, by disaggregating the 30-year period into two 15-year timespans, a more dynamic picture emerges of how alignments have changed — one that favors Beijing. Indonesia’s alignment score for the first period (1995-2009), for example, was 56, but in the second period (2010-2024) it was 43, a change of 13 points in China’s favor. The country moved from being marginally in the United States’ camp to being marginally in China’s camp. Until 2009, Thailand was a determined hedger (49), but it has since leaned China’s way (41). Malaysia (from 49 to 46) and Singapore (from 50 to 45) have also moved marginally in China’s direction, although both remain within the band of hedgers.
“Cambodia (from 42 to 34), Laos (from 33 to 25) and Myanmar (from 24 to 23) continue their drift toward their northern neighbor, aligning solidly with China. The only country that has moved somewhat away from China and toward the United States in the past 30 years is Vietnam, although not by much (from 41 to 45). Our measurements in the more recent period suggest that Vietnam is about to join the likes of Malaysia and Singapore in straddling the superpower divide.”
The article though erred a bit in its assessment where the Philippines is in the China-US divide: “The Philippines, a US treaty ally, has also moved a bit closer to China even as it remains in the United States’ camp; it scores 62 in the first period and 58 in the second.” I suspect the article gave undue weight for the six years when President Rodrigo Duterte was in power and drastically tilted the country toward China.
Belligerent
With belligerent statements such as claiming China is an “existential threat” to Philippine national security and adding four more sites for the US to use as its forward bases in a conflict with the Chinese over Taiwan, President Marcos incontrovertibly has moved the country to a more accurate score of probably 90 — approaching 100 as full alignment with the US. Note that even with a score of 58, the Philippines among Asean countries is the most aligned with the US.
Indeed the article explained the shifts in Philippine orientation toward China:
“Even though Southeast Asia is clearly leaning toward China, alignment patterns are not set in stone. Countries can change their orientation rather quickly. For example, under President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo from 2001 to 2010, the Philippines leaned toward China. Her successor, Benigno Aquino 3rd, who ruled from 2010 to 2016, pulled the country back toward the United States. Rodrigo Duterte, who followed Aquino, swung toward China; his successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has swung back toward the United States.”
One of the biggest factors explaining the shift toward China is economic, the article explained. “China is now Asean’s largest trading partner. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, it has financed Laos railways, Cambodian ports and Indonesia’s high-speed train projects.” As the authors put it, “For governments whose legitimacy rests on delivering economic growth, Chinese capital looks far more dependable than Western promises of ‘capacity building.’”
“For the Philippines, this is a mirror and a warning. Marcos Jr.’s pro-US pivot may seem decisive today, but the same economic and geopolitical forces pulling Indonesia and Thailand toward China are at work here, too. Chinese capital is still flowing into Philippine infrastructure, trade with China still dwarfs trade with the US, and public opinion is hardly uniform on the risks of over-reliance on either superpower.”
If the Americans treat the Philippines as merely a “forward operating base” without substantial economic engagement, the drift of its Asean neighbors could eventually tug Manila back toward a more China-friendly stance — especially under a future administration with different priorities and without the American blackmail involving the Marcos’ family’s contempt of court in refusing to surrender $2 billion in alleged hidden as well disclosed wealth for human rights victims.
That Marcos’ hostile foreign policy toward China is the worst of his many mistakes is certainly evident in that only he has taken such an unneeded stance among Asean leaders that has hurt his country.
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Southeast Asian nations tilting toward China
Source: Breaking News PH
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