Don’t panic but reasonably prepare!

A COMPLETE fuel supply disruption like that which threatens the world now because of the United States and Israel’s brutal, unnecessary war against Iran is likely to be more destabilizing than the worst months of the Covid-19 pandemic, the most recent externally-caused crisis we’ve experienced.

During the pandemic, economic activity slowed because governments deliberately restricted movement to stop contagion. But the physical supply systems of the economy remained intact. Ships still arrived at ports, trucks still transported food, power plants continued generating electricity, and fuel remained available at gasoline stations. The crisis was primarily a public-health emergency that spilled into the economy, not a breakdown of the economic machinery itself.

A fuel exhaustion scenario would be different. It would strike directly at the mechanical foundations of the economy.

First, transportation would be hit far more severely than during Covid. Even when lockdowns were strict, trucks carrying food and goods continued operating, and public transport services eventually resumed. Fuel shortages, however, would immobilize the vehicles themselves. Without diesel, trucks cannot move goods from ports and farms to markets. Cargo ships moving between islands cannot sail. Buses and jeepneys stop operating regardless of whether people are allowed to travel.

In an archipelagic country like the Philippines, that is a fundamental vulnerability. Movement between islands — and even within large islands — depends heavily on fuel-powered transport.

Second, the food supply chain would be more fragile than it was during the pandemic. During the Covid lockdowns, food production and transport were classified as essential activities, so supply lines continued functioning despite restrictions. In a fuel shortage, the problem is not policy but physics: trucks cannot run without diesel. Food may still exist in farms and ports, but it cannot easily reach cities.

Third, the electricity system would face greater risks. Much of the Philippine power supply comes from coal and natural gas, but diesel plays an essential role in backup generators and in electricity generation on smaller islands. Hospitals, telecommunications systems, and commercial facilities rely heavily on diesel generators during power interruptions. If diesel runs out, these safety buffers disappear.

Inflationary

Fourth, inflationary pressure could be even stronger than during the pandemic. Fuel costs ripple through every sector — transport, agriculture, manufacturing, and retail. When fuel becomes scarce rather than merely expensive, prices can surge quickly, creating broader economic instability.

The social psychology of the crisis would also differ. During Covid, the public understood the cause of the disruption: a global health emergency. People expected restrictions and were psychologically prepared for temporary economic hardship.

Fuel shortages tend to produce a different reaction. Long lines at gas stations, empty pumps, and transport stoppages create visible signs of scarcity. Such scenes amplify anxiety and can trigger panic buying or hoarding.

Historically, oil shocks have sometimes produced social unrest because they affect daily life so directly. Maybe this would be the silver lining of this crisis, for Filipinos to realize that in today’s dangerous world, we cannot have a corrupt, inefficient government to weather crises caused by external developments we cannot control.

The only thing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration has been doing to weather the crisis is to push for the abolition of the excise taxes on fuel. That will take at least a month, and by the time we have the law implemented, there won’t be fuel to be bought.

However, there is one important difference that could make a fuel crisis shorter than the pandemic. Covid lasted for years because it involved a biological threat that spread globally and required vaccines and public-health measures to control. A fuel disruption, by contrast, is primarily a supply problem. If alternative shipments can be secured quickly or the Strait of Hormuz is opened soon, the crisis can stabilize within weeks.

Prepare and brace

That old saying attributed to the 19th-century British politician Benjamin Disraeli should be our guiding principle these stormy days: “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.” The sensible response, though, is not panic or hoarding. It is simply preparedness.

Households that maintain a modest buffer of essential supplies can ride out several weeks of supply disruption without anxiety. In many ways, this is no different from the preparation long recommended in typhoon-prone regions.

The objective is straightforward: ensure that a household could function normally for three to four weeks, even if supply deliveries slowed or stopped temporarily.

The first priority is food, specifically food that does not depend on refrigeration.

Fresh foods disappear quickly during supply disruptions. What matters most are staples that store well and provide adequate calories. Rice remains the most practical foundation of a Filipino emergency pantry. It stores well if kept dry and provides the highest calories per peso.

Alongside rice, households should consider keeping a reserve of simple shelf-stable foods: dried noodles; canned fish, such as sardines or tuna; canned meat; canned vegetables or beans; powdered milk; peanut butter; crackers; instant soup mixes; and oats.

These are not luxury foods, but they are durable and easy to prepare.

A reasonable rule of thumb is to keep two to three weeks of basic calories per household member. This does not require filling an entire room with supplies. A modest pantry shelf, replenished gradually during normal grocery shopping, can easily accumulate such a reserve over time.

Water

If food is the first priority, water is the second — and, in many ways, the more critical one.

A human being can survive weeks with limited food, but only a few days without water. Emergency planners commonly recommend maintaining about three to four liters of water per person per day for drinking and minimal hygiene. Over three weeks, that amounts to roughly 60 to 80 liters per person.

This may sound like a large quantity, but it can be stored gradually in bottled water containers or larger water jugs. Households may also consider water purification tablets or portable filters, which provide an additional layer of security if bottled water supplies run low.

The third consideration is cooking. Many Filipino households rely on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders for cooking, and disruptions in fuel distribution could interrupt these deliveries. Keeping a spare LPG tank can, therefore, be an important precaution.

Some households also keep portable butane stoves with small canisters, which are widely used in camping or outdoor cooking. Even charcoal can provide a simple fallback method of preparing meals if other fuels become scarce.

Prepared food supplies are only useful if there is a way to cook them.

Medical supplies represent another crucial area of preparation. Most households already keep basic medicines, but it is wise to maintain several weeks’ supply of essential medications, especially maintenance drugs prescribed by doctors.

Alongside prescription medicines, it is useful to keep a small medical kit containing pain relievers, fever medicine, oral rehydration salts, antiseptic solution, bandages, gauze, and a thermometer.

These items occupy little space yet can make a substantial difference during emergencies when pharmacies may be closed or difficult to reach.

Lighting and power are also worth considering.

Fuel disruptions can sometimes coincide with power interruptions, particularly if the electricity system comes under strain. A few simple items can provide reassurance: rechargeable flashlights; spare batteries; power banks for mobile phones, candles, and matches.

Solar-powered lamps have also become increasingly affordable and provide an excellent backup source of light that does not depend on fuel or electricity.

Cash

Another often overlooked precaution is cash.

Modern life has become heavily dependent on electronic payments. Digital wallets, bank transfers, and credit cards work only when electricity and telecommunications networks are functioning smoothly. During disruptions, those systems can become unreliable.

Keeping a modest amount of physical cash ensures that households can purchase essential items even if electronic payment systems temporarily fail.

Basic household supplies should not be forgotten either.

Soap, detergent, toilet paper, garbage bags, disinfectant, and other everyday items are among the first to disappear from store shelves during supply disruptions. Maintaining a small reserve of these goods ensures that households can continue daily routines without unnecessary stress.

Finally, transportation should be a concern. Fuel shortages can make travel difficult. A simple precaution is to keep your car’s fuel tank at least half full whenever possible. Some households also keep bicycles available for short trips to nearby markets or stores.

These are small steps, but they can make daily life far easier if transportation becomes constrained.

None of these preparations require panic buying or extreme measures. They simply involve gradually maintaining a modest buffer of essential supplies.

Preparedness is not about expecting catastrophe. It is about recognizing that modern supply systems, however efficient, are not invulnerable.

A few shelves of food, several containers of water, basic medicines, lighting, and household supplies can provide weeks of security. Such preparation transforms a potential crisis from a moment of anxiety into a manageable inconvenience.

In the Philippines, where typhoons and logistical disruptions are part of life, this kind of preparedness is less a sign of alarm than of common sense.

The goal is simple: if supply chains slow for a few weeks, life at home should continue smoothly.

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Don’t panic but reasonably prepare!
Source: Breaking News PH