Senate will acquit Sara or even dismiss the case ‘forthwith’

ANY way you look at it, the silly impeachment case against Vice President Sara Duterte will fail. It will be, after the attempt early in Marcos II’s term to amend our system of government to a parliamentary one, his second big debacle. It will almost certainly be the last nail in his coffin.

Rather than bore you with blah-blahs as most commentators are doing, I’ll give you the numbers. To convict Sara, a two-thirds vote of the 24 senators is needed, which is 16 senators. If only 15 vote to find her guilty, the case is dismissed.

I can count nine senators inarguably for Sara: Senators Bato de la Rosa, Bong Go, Rodante Marcoleta, Imee Marcos, Robin Padilla, the two Villars, Camille and Mark, the two Cayetanos, Alan and Pia.

There are four senators who have (wisely) kept mum on their views but are likely to vote Sara innocent, because their fathers or siblings did not sign the impeachment complaint, and presumably they will follow their elders’ or kins’ advice.

That probably came after much deliberation with their kin, since the latter rejected the P150-million bribe offered by the House leadership for them to sign the impeachment paper, in the form of ayuda and graft-prone infrastructure funds for their constituents, not something to sneeze at three months before elections.

Repeat
They would likely repeat their votes in the House, and reject the accusations against Sara. These congressmen of high moral values are: Bukidnon representative Jose Maria Zubiri, Sen. Migz Zubiri’s father; Sorsogon Rep. Dette Escudero, Senate President Chiz Escudero’s younger sister; Antique’s Antonio Legarda, younger brother of Sen. Loren Legarda; and pastor, Cibac Party-list Rep. Eddie Villanueva, Sen. Joel Villanueva’s father.

In addition to these four, ACT Party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo who landed fourth in the senatorial elections, did not sign the impeachment complaint. I don’t think he will change his mind in the trial. The two Tulfos in the Senate — the other is Raffy — will likely vote as a “mini-bloc.” Nine hardcore Sara allies plus these five are very likely to acquit her. These totals at least 14 senators. Sara needs only just one more senator to be acquitted.

Sen. Jinggoy Estrada had already given a hint on how he will vote, having said last year: “Impeachment will only sow divisiveness and distract us from the urgent and pressing issues we must collectively address.”

Aversion
I think Estrada and his half-brother, JV Ejercito, have a psychological aversion to voting someone guilty in an impeachment process, because it was a painful experience for them for their father to be impeached — only to make, after just a few years, a political comeback as mayor of Manila and with two sons as senators.

If Senators Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto and even Lito Lapid have a political ideology it would be political realism, or pragmatism. Note that in this trial it is unlikely that the Marcos government can raise billions of pesos to bribe senators to vote Sara guilty, as Aquino III did in the form of the so-called “Disbursement Acceleration Plan” that allocated to each senator-judge P100 to P150 million in infrastructure funds to vote Chief Justice Renato Corona guilty.

Lastly, Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian’s father, William, is a business tycoon. Will he advise his son to risk going against someone who would most likely be president in 2028? If you’re a senator and you realize that the big majority of senators will find Sara guilty, will you still vote against her, who will likely be the next president? Even Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan aren’t ideology-driven idiots.

Most important is the fact that the senators will have in their minds the earthshaking results of the recent elections which demonstrated the Dutertes’ tremendous political clout, that they could even overthrow the long-reigning Garcia clan of Cebu.

Screams
Forget the state-controlled media’s screams and the ivory-tower yellow academics (who know nothing about reality), both Rodrigo and Sara have become charismatic icons, beloved by the nation. As in the case of similar leaders elsewhere in the world, it would take decades, or even never, for such hero-worship to vanish. Our senators are wise enough that you don’t cross heroes, unless the US pays you, and even offers you a green card.

The Dutertes will triumph in a big way against the Marcos-Romualdez clan who used P32 billion of taxpayers’ money to bribe 215 congressmen with P150 million to sign the impeachment against Sara. By the end of the month, we will probably see Risa Hontiveros as the only senator to vote Sara guilty, with tears in her eyes, in frustration.

But why does the Senate have to go through a doomed venture?

Octa Octa Research is shameless in rushing to join the propaganda frenzy against Sara that it has announced the findings of a flawed poll, that “78 percent” of Filipinos want the impeachment trial to proceed.

I had debunked a similar claim by the older pollster Social Weather Station (SWS) which claimed that “68 percent” of respondents wanted the trial (June 4, 2025). I demonstrated that the poll was so flawed because it was so designed to result in “survey or respondent” fatigue. That is, after being asked 31 questions, the tired respondent doesn’t even think of the issue being asked anymore and just agrees with whatever response the pollster really wants.

Another flaw is that “impeachment” is really a very technical process most Filipinos do not understand that one question (“address the impeachment charges, answer all allegations”) does not suffice to get a genuine response to it. Professional pollsters would easily see through that SWS trick, and at the very least the question on the impeachment would require a very lengthy explanation. The UP Law School for instance came out with a “primer on impeachment” of eight pages, with its number of words four times the length of this column.

OCTA
Research is even more unprofessional. Unlike the SWS which disclosed that the poll was commissioned by the anti-Duterte propaganda outfit Stratbase-ADR, Octa didn’t say if the poll was commissioned or not. I don’t think OCTA would have paid for it. Its finances are in such big trouble that it can’t even put up a decent website. The impeachment survey, with its methodology, wasn’t even posted on its website. So who’s the shadowy figure or outfit that funded OCTA for this lie of a poll? It didn’t say if the question on impeachment was part of a bigger survey, which in that case it would have also been flawed with the survey fatigue syndrome.

Not only that. Octa’s survey question is obviously flawed in that it is what is called a leading question, one phrased in a way that suggests a preferred answer, subtly or overtly influencing the respondent’s response. Octa’s question: “Do you think Sara Duterte should face a Senate trial or impeachment court to clear her name by responding to the charges against her?” What idiot would answer that she shouldn’t clear her name in a court? Indeed only a small percentage — 13 percent of the respondents — the idiots in this country, answered in the negative.

However, I had extracted from SWS’ raw data analysis that 55 percent weren’t aware or don’t know enough of the impeachment issue. Statistically tied are those who agreed with the impeachment (19 percent) and those who didn’t (16 percent). Now, isn’t that a more believable assessment? A more professional pollster would first devote a lot of time describing what an “impeachment court” is. He would narrate the facts that 24 politicians — the senators are not regular court justices who are all lawyers, and have lots of experience in practicing law — will render judgment, that no evidence of the charges have been presented, which will be done only in the trial, that in this case the congressmen who filed the complaint were bribed to do, that if found guilty she cannot run for president in 2028.

A real pollster would also explain: The “trial” is political in nature, the Senate will find her guilty or not, not because of evidence, but out of their politically driven agendas.

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Senate will acquit Sara or even dismiss the case ‘forthwith’
Source: Breaking News PH